Monday, October 31, 2016

The Folly of the Crowd

On the eve of America’s next Presidential election, it is astonishing to witness the general mood of the voters.  Never, in my entire life, have I experienced such a sense of revulsion among my friends, coworkers, and relatives towards at least one – and in some cases, both – of the major candidates.  While it seems to be a perennial feature of Presidential elections for many citizens to ask, in amazement, “Is this the best that we could come up with?” the reaction to our choices this time goes far, far beyond that.  Many Americans – and many in the rest of the world, as well – are questioning the general intelligence of the voters in this country.  And, on a deeper level, many are probably questioning whether the present debacle is a damning indictment against the system of democracy itself.

I am often tempted to condemn the competency of the average voter, but when I do, I catch myself, for two reasons.  First, when I base my condemnation on lack of intelligence, I have to face the simple fact that we are not a country of stupid people.  I can attest to this personally, in my daily encounters with individuals from all walks of life.  But demographic statistics support this as well.  While the U.S. no longer ranks near the top of educational attainment in comparison with the other developed nations of the world, it is still comfortably in the middle.  And according to a recent study of 60 countries, the U.S. ranks 7th in literacy: ahead of other countries such as Germany, France, and the United Kingdom.  Accepting this fact, my second recourse is to condemn the American voter as simply lazy: unwilling to fulfill the basic civic responsibility of investigating candidates – doing the necessary homework to make informed voting choices.  There is much more substance to this charge, but whenever I begin to slip into a fit of self-righteous anger, I am forced to acknowledge that I am as great an offender as my average fellow citizen.  I am embarrassed when I think of the many, many times that I have been in a polling booth, choosing among a slate of candidates for many different offices – judges, school board members, local representatives – and realizing that I haven’t got a clue what distinguishes one candidate from another.  I am particularly ashamed to remember the methods I sometimes used to make these choices.  And it is no consolation to know that many if not most of my fellow voters were resorting to similar methods.

I’ve gotten better over the years, perhaps due to more maturity, but also with help from the internet.  One type of internet service that I have come across in recent years offers a series of questions about where I stand on certain issues, such as the national debt, birth control, immigration, climate change, etc., and when I submit my answers to these, the various candidates are scored and ranked based upon how closely their own positions are correlated with my own.  And several years ago I learned that I could get help with one of my most difficult voting choices – choosing judges – from a performance rating that was offered online by the American Bar Association.  And, of course, when there is simply no basis available for making an informed choice, one option is not to vote at all.  This option does present a great risk, because if it is widely adopted, then it undermines the very basis of electoral democracy.  On the other hand, if those who know that they can’t make an informed choice do not vote, then it allows those who are making an informed choice to have more of a relative say in the election.  I belong to a number of professional associations, and rarely vote in the election of officers, both because I generally have no idea what the relative merits of the candidates are, but also because I doubt that there is much at stake in the outcome of the elections: the professional associations will continue to hold their conferences and publish their journals regardless of who is at the helm.  Interestingly, my reaction is apparently not an uncommon one among members of such organizations, because I get a sense, as I receive repeated appeals to vote – sometimes with an ill-disguised air of desperation – that the number of votes received is very, very low.

When it comes right down to it, this seems to be a very precarious way to live our lives: letting so many important decisions that affect our wellbeing be made by a group of people who are selected by ignorant and/or lazy voters.  And not just our political institutions, but our most powerful corporations are set up the same way, with its leaders selected by the votes of shareholders – many if not most of whom never actually vote.  But this is a feature of civilization itself.  Call it “proxyism”: the need to rely upon others to do certain things – including some of our thinking – for us.  It probably goes all the way back to the days when our ancestors were hunter-gatherers, foraging about as a group for food.  Such tribes probably realized that their livelihood could potentially be improved – significantly – if they allowed one or more of their members to refrain from the usual daily drudgery of cooking, making shelters, or picking fruits and vegetables and instead wander about far and wide in the forests and the plains, looking for herds of prey to hunt or new areas of vegetation to forage.  These wanderers or scouts were given a share of the foodstuffs collected by the rest of the tribe to sustain them while they went off on their daily searches.  When such a system worked, the gains from new discoveries outweighed the losses incurred by having one or more fewer bodies to do the regular daily chores.  But there were many risks inherent in the system, as well.  The scouts might prove to be incompetent at their task.  Or worse, they might not do the task at all, and simply remove themselves to some secluded spot where they did nothing, and returned each day to the tribe and pretended that an exhaustive search had come up with no rewards.  And, worst of all, if they did actually encounter new sources of food, they might be tempted to engorge themselves on it, and not even tell the rest of the tribe about it.  These, then, have always been the risks of “proxyism”, and to mitigate these risks, one has to try to choose the most competent – and ideally most honorable – proxies, and then have at least some rudimentary way to make sure that they are doing what one wants them to do.

And clearly, simply relying on a vote for choosing someone to take on important responsibilities does not guarantee that the most capable will be selected for those positions.  As Winston Churchill put it, “The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.”  When voters make choices with little or no information, or out of complete ignorance, the results can be devastating.  Imagine an American voter, for example, choosing among a list of candidates of whom he or she has absolutely no knowledge, whatsoever.  Basing the choice only on the names, the voter might decide that candidates with more “mainstream” names like Smith or Jones are “safer” choices than candidates with names like Rodriguez or Alvarez.  They could convince themselves that this choice was not based on any bigotry whatsoever against persons of Hispanic ancestry, but rather on a simple, dispassionate, probabilistic calculation that in America persons with Hispanic-sounding names have a higher probability of being immigrants, and therefore are more likely to have a lower level of formal education than a Smith or a Jones.  Something like this apparently happened in the Democrat primary elections in Illinois in 1986, when Janice Hart and Mark Fairchild were chosen by popular vote as the candidates for that party of Secretary of State and Lieutenant Governor, respectively.  It was only after they had won the primary that it became widely known that they were followers of Lyndon LaRouche, a conservative political extremist.  The establishment Democrat party candidate for governor, Adlai Stevenson III, was then compelled to start a third party so that he would not have to run on the same ticket as Hart and Fairchild, and eventually lost the election.  Here, then, was a case where two people who didn’t even espouse the platforms of the party that they claimed to be affiliated with won that party’s primary election, because voters, failing to do even a cursory investigation of their political beliefs, were satisfied that the names of these two candidates were sufficiently “mainstream” to warrant supporting them.  This of course, is only a particularly egregious example of a voting behavior that is all too common in democracies.

And the popular vote seems to be at least as ineffective in rooting incompetent and/or unethical politicians out of office.  A notorious case of this occurred in the city of Bell, California, from 2005 to 2010, where city officials were being paid exorbitantly high salaries (some of the highest in the nation), in a small town where the average income per person in 2009 was less than $25,000 per year.  The most conspicuous offender was city administrator Robert Rizzo, who was making an annual salary of $1.5 million a year when the scandal was brought to light in 2010 by investigative journalists working for the Los Angeles Times.  It was not the actions of angry voters – at least not initially – but rather the criminal investigations and hearings prompted by the revelations in the Los Angeles Times articles that led to the conviction and ouster of Rizzo, along with the mayor, the assistant city administrator, and four city council members.  Had it not been for the diligence of the press and actions of law enforcement agencies, Rizzo and his cronies would have probably continued to bilk the poor citizens of Bell for years.  This is a pattern that is all too common in American politics, where it is the vigilance of state or federal enforcement agencies, rather than that of voters, which is the primary deterrent to blatantly self-aggrandizing and corrupt behavior on the part of elected officials. 

And if voters are ineffective in reigning in abuses involving political offices, they are much more so when it comes to keeping the behavior of big businesses in check.  In theory, large corporations are beholden to the owners of the common shares of their stock, and these shareholders have the power to exercise their votes (in proportion to the shares that they hold) to guide the policies of the corporations, including the selection of corporate officers and the determination of how much they will be compensated, and in what manner.  In practice, of course, shareholders rarely exercise this privilege, and even the large, institutional owners of shares, who have significant voting power, rarely exercise this power in order to rein in the behavior of those at the helm of the corporations ostensibly under their control.  As a consequence, it is all too common to read about corporations engaging in unethical behavior, including activities that endanger the lives of their employees and the communities where their factories are located.  The compensation of corporate CEOs and other top tier executives continues to spiral upwards, and again it is not uncommon to read about CEOs leaving corporations with hefty cash rewards after grossly mismanaging them.  Such was the case, for example, with Bob Gannon, who had been CEO of the Montana Power Company, a venerable electric utility that had served Montana customers for 90 years.  Gannon oversaw the sale of that company’s generating assets and used the money to invest in a high risk scheme to build a 26,000-mile fiber optic network.  The venture failed, electricity prices soared, utility employees were laid off, and the price of Montana Power Company (or rather, Touch America, which was the name of the restructured “telecommunications” company) stock plummeted to less than 30 cents a share by the time the company filed for bankruptcy protection in 2003, which in turn decimated the retirement savings of employees and others who had invested in what they thought would always be a stable and secure income-generating asset.  But Bob Gannon and three of his fellow executives left the company with a $5.4 million dollar payout, and Gannon retired into a $3 million dollar home.

The Great Recession was brought on in large part as the result of reckless lending practices engaged in by some of the largest financial institutions in the world.  None of the leaders of these institutions were ever held accountable for their actions, and even those who led institutions that were particularly culpable in contributing to the meltdown, such as AIG Financial Products (which sold credit default swaps, one of the risky investments that ultimately unraveled), did not suffer repercussions from their actions.  Joseph Cassano, one of the executives in charge of that organization, received a bonus of $34 million in 2008, the year that AIGFG incurred enormous losses from the credit default swaps – an event that played a pivotal role in the recession that ensued.

As voters, then, we often do an abysmal job both in selecting those who make important decisions that will affect our lives, and in retaining or ousting them.  We rely heavily on other third parties to monitor them for us, such as auditors and police organizations.  But in some of the most egregious cases of malfeasance, many of the agencies entrusted with guarding our interests have been compromised by the very organizations that they were supposed to be watching.  Enron succeeded in doing this with its auditors, as did the crooked politicians at the center of the Bell, California scandal.  And while the FBI has had a generally exemplary record in catching politicians and businesses who have betrayed the trust of their voters and shareholders, it has not always been above suspicion in falling sway to the special interests of politicians.  In the current Presidential campaign, both candidates have accused the FBI of doing exactly that.  In extreme cases, such as in Russia and China today, the machinery of government, including that of policing and oversight, has been totally compromised by an elite caste of politically connected plutocrats, and there is little if any recourse for the common citizen to seek out for protection and justice.

On a more optimistic note, there is a growing body of scientific literature that suggests that there really is a “wisdom of the crowd”, in that several people making a decision collectively often tend to make better judgments than any of the individuals that make up the group.  This is particularly true when diversity exists among the individuals who are involved in making the decision – in expertise, educational backgrounds, and outlooks.

I had a personal experience of this about a decade ago, when I was called upon to serve on a jury trial.  The case involved a Hispanic man in Chicago who had been accused of the attempted murder of several police officers with a handgun.  When the trial began, I was immediately impressed by the dedication of nearly all of the members of my jury in getting to the facts of the case.  (There was one exception: an elderly man who slept through most of the trial.)  But when the deliberations began, I noticed that there was a distinct difference in how the jurors had viewed the case.  We were evenly divided between white jurors and black jurors, and while the white jurors (including me) tended to believe the police officers’ account of what happened uncritically, the black jurors were deeply suspicious of their testimony.  And when it came time to make the first vote on the innocence or guilt of the suspect, the voting fell along racial lines, with the white jurors (again, myself included) voting the man guilty, and the black jurors voting him not guilty.  In the intense discussion that ensued, the black jurors pointed out some troubling facts about the evidence that had been presented to us which undermined the police officers’ version of the events.  In the end, we all became convinced that these discrepancies were sufficiently significant to provide a reasonable doubt against the defendant’s guilt, and we voted unanimously to acquit him.  I feel satisfied that we made the right decision on that day; and since then I continue to be a little less uncritical about the behavior and testimony of police officers.  The recent spate of high profile killings of unarmed black persons by police officers in the U.S. only highlights to me why the cynicism of my fellow black jurors toward the testimony of the police officers may have been warranted by their collective experience. 

Of course, for every example of a group making a wise collective decision, history provides plenty of counterexamples where voters, or committees, or mobs, made terrible choices.  It just seems that using the vote to choose others who will make very important decisions affecting one’s livelihood seems to be a very precarious and risky venture.  When making such a choice, I as a voter am actually hoping to accomplish two things.  First, I want to select someone who is capable – ideally most capable – of making the decisions that I am entrusting to them.  And second, I want that person to make those decisions in a manner that serves my interests, or, when this is not the case, serves the community (or the long-term interests of the company, in the case of shareholders) in a way that I consider to be just and fair to all stakeholders.  (While I would love to have said that I am solely looking for representatives who are capable and just, I would have been dishonest if I pretended that I did not also consider how well they would represent or serve my personal interests - at least with respect to certain matters.  I think that all voters would have to admit the same.  The American philosopher John Rawls famously argued, in A Theory of Justice, that the most just set of laws and regulations for a society would be those that were designed by its future occupants behind “a veil of ignorance”, i.e., in a condition where each of them had no idea of whether they were going to be rich or poor, male or female, white or black, etc.  Hence, each occupant would want to design a system in which nobody was unfairly advantaged or disadvantaged for arbitrary reasons.  It would be difficult if not impossible to design such an impartial system, Rawls contended, if each of the architects knew what their particular personal stake would be in the outcome.)  This is a tall set of expectations, and for that reason it seems that the popular vote is a very wobbly tent pole to prop up the canopy of civilization.


Churchill also famously said: “No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise.  Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.”  He is right, of course.  And I am confident that America will survive beyond this next electoral cycle.  But the abuses of large corporations, such as those which contributed to the massive economic downturn of the Great Recession, and the apparent growing inability of our national government to solve its most fundamental problems, tempts me to continue the search for something better than what we have.  Perhaps, in the end, we will discover, as people did in crises of comparable magnitude in earlier times, that it is not an overhaul of the institutions that will save us, but the arrival of one or more special individuals who truly are worthy of the offices they attain, who rise above the institutional infirmities that they are saddled with and help their constituents draw upon the latent greatness that always lies within all of us, waiting to be tapped by a leader with courage, character, and vision.